Summary
Aspinall and Gane officially face off in the UFC. Photo: Reproduction/Facebook/UFC
We are almost there! The grand event is on its way to becoming a reality. UFC 321This Saturday (25), in Abu Dhabi (UAE), the organization put together a great card to celebrate its 22nd event in the United Arab Emirates. In the most anticipated fight, Tom aspinall, linear heavyweight champion (up to 120,2 kg), faces Cyryl Gane. In the main struggle, the Brazilian women Virna jandiroba e Mackenzie dern will fight for the vacant strawweight belt (up to 52,2 kg). As the duels are the talk of the town, the SUPER FIGHTS sought Artificial Intelligence for their analysis and to have the definitive guess.
Pay attention to the UFC 321 schedule
O UFC 321 will be held in Abu Dhabi and will begin at an alternative time for the Brazilian public. The event begins at 11:00 a.m. (Brasília time) and features 13 fights. The main card is scheduled to begin at 3:00 p.m.
See too
Tom Aspinall x Ciryl Gane
This is a fascinating matchup between two of the most technical and athletic heavyweights in the world today. Based on a detailed analysis of each fighter's characteristics, history, and current form, the prediction points to a high probability de Tom aspinall win Cyryl Gane, but in MMA nothing is 100% guaranteed.
The Englishman is a more complete fighter, with devastating knockout power and an elite ground game, representing a stylistic nightmare for the Frenchman, whose grappling vulnerabilities have already been exposed in his previous title fights. Aspinall has more tools to finish the fight, whether standing or on the ground, and his aggressive momentum will likely dictate the pace of the fight from the start.
Detailed Analysis of Confronto
This fight, for the linear heavyweight belt, pits two very different styles against each other, both representing the new generation of the category.
Tom Aspinall: The Complete and Fulminating Champion
Aspinall makes weight and confirms UFC fight. Photo: Reproduction/Instagram/UFC
The English Tom aspinall (15-3) isn't just the champion; he's seen by many as the most complete and dangerous heavyweight on the planet today. His rise to the top has been meteoric, and his skills justify all the favoritism.
Skills and Style: Aspinall is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has trained extensively in boxing and Muay Thai. This foundation makes him a threat in all areas of the fight. He possesses the agility, speed, and technique of a fighter from a much lighter weight category, something rare for a man his size (1,96 m). His head movement and footwork are excellent, and he combines this with extremely fast and powerful hands.
Finishing Power: Aspinall's most striking characteristic is his ability to finish fights quickly. He has finished all 15 of his victories, 14 of them in the first round. He holds the record for the shortest average fight time in UFC history, at just 2 minutes and 2 seconds. This demonstrates a killer instinct and brutal efficiency. He has 12 wins by knockout and 3 by submission, demonstrating his versatility.
Elite Grappling: His ground game is perhaps his greatest asset in this matchup. Not only does he possess top-notch offensive jiu-jitsu, but his UFC takedown defense is flawless, boasting a 100% success rate. When the fight goes to the ground, he fluidly transitions to dominant positions and seeks the submission with impressive urgency.
Recent Performances: Aspinall is at his peak. He won the interim title with a devastating knockout over Sergei Pavlovich and, in his most recent fight, in July 2024, he avenged his only UFC loss (caused by a knee injury) by knocking out Curtis blaydes in just one minute.
Ciryl Gane: The Technical and Elusive Striker
Gane makes weight and confirms UFC fight. Photo: Reproduction/Instagram/UFC
Frenchman Ciryl 'Bon Gamin' Gane (13-2) is a striking phenomenon. With a successful past in Muay Thai, where he was an undefeated champion, he brought a unique style to MMA at heavyweight.
Skills and Style: Gane's main strength is his movement. He's incredibly light on his feet, masterfully controls distance with front kicks, and moves laterally like few others, frustrating opponents who try to corner him. His style focuses more on volume and precision than on one-hit knockout power.
Wingspan Advantage: Gane has a reach advantage over Aspinall, which he utilizes effectively to keep opponents within striking range.
Vulnerabilities: The big question mark over Gane is his grappling. In his two losses, both in title fights, this flaw was the deciding factor. He was controlled on the ground by Francis Ngannou and finished quickly by Jon JonesHis stats show a takedown defense of just 43%, which is worrying against a grappler of Aspinall's caliber.
Recent Performances: This will be Gane's third shot at the linear title, having failed in his first two. His last fight was a controversial split decision victory over Alexander Volkov in December 2024.
The Forecast: How the Fight Is Likely to Play Out
The most likely scenario is that Tom aspinall Press from the start. He won't give Gane the space and time the Frenchman needs to implement his movement and distance control game. Aspinall will use his feints and speed to close the distance and test Gane's chin and takedown defense immediately.
Gane's path to victory would be to keep the fight long, frustrate Aspinall with his movement, and accumulate points with his technical strikes. However, Aspinall's speed and fighting IQ will likely nullify this strategy.
Aspinall is expected to take the fight to the ground. Once on the ground, the Englishman's advantage is overwhelming. His ability to pass guard and find a submission is elite, and this seems to be the clearest path to victory. Even standing, Aspinall's knockout power is superior, and he has the ability to end the fight with a single strike, something Gane lacks.
Predicted Winner: Tom aspinall, by submission or technical knockout, probably in the first two rounds.
Forecast Probability
Considering all factors, the probability of this prediction being correct is approximately 75-80%Aspinall simply has more paths to victory and appears to be the most complete and dangerous fighter in the world today. However, it's worth considering that Gane is an elite fighter. Despite his weaknesses, he's a world-class striker and has the ability to knock out anyone if he can keep the fight standing.
Virna Jandiroba x Mackenzie Dern
Virna and Mackenzie officially face off at the UFC. Photo: Reproduction/Facebook/UFC
What a spectacular fight. Two top-level Brazilians vying for the vacant strawweight belt. It's the kind of matchup that leaves any MMA fan excited. Analyzing this fight is a fascinating exercise because we're dealing with a very unique duel of styles: it's not the classic 'striker vs. grappler', but rather a clash between two jiu-jitsu specialists with very different approaches and strengths. Let's delve deeper into the characteristics of each to reach a verdict.
Detailed Analysis: Virna Jandiroba
Virna makes weight and confirms UFC fight. Photo: Reproduction/Instagram/UFC
Strong points:
Control and Pressure Jiu-Jitsu: Virna is the embodiment of strength and control on the ground. The nickname "Carcará" isn't for nothing. When she takes you to the ground, it feels like someone has placed a lead blanket over you. She's not a grappler who seeks out fancy submissions at all costs; she first establishes position, evolves, crushes her opponent, saps her energy and will to fight, and then capitalizes with a submission, usually a rear-naked choke or a well-placed armbar. Her takedowns, derived from judo, are very powerful and functional for MMA, especially in the clinch against the fence.
Physical Strength and Conditioning: For a strawweight, Virna is an extremely strong athlete. This strength translates into everything she does: the power of her takedowns, the pressure she imposes on the ground, and her ability to absorb blows. Her physical conditioning is also a key factor. She seems comfortable fighting at a high pace for three rounds, and because her style is based on control, she's a very sustainable game for a five-round championship fight.
Evolution in Exchange: While still her weakest point, Virna's striking has evolved with each fight. She's no longer just a fighter who throws desperate strikes to close the distance. Her boxing is more polished, she utilizes low kicks effectively, and she seems more comfortable exchanging strikes standing up, which is crucial for opening up her takedowns.
Weaknesses:
Vulnerability against Elite Strikers: Her track record shows that her biggest struggles have come against high-volume, well-moving strikers, who have managed to neutralize her takedown game and keep her at range. She can still be somewhat robotic on the feet and lacks the hand speed of other top-tier athletes in the division.
Detailed Analysis: Mackenzie Dern
Mackenzie makes weight and confirms UFC fight. Photo: Reproduction/Instagram/UFC
Strong points
The Most Dangerous Jiu-Jitsu in Women's MMA: If Virna is control, Mackenzie is opportunity and attack. She is undoubtedly the most decorated and offensively dangerous grappler in the history of women's MMA. Mackenzie doesn't need a dominant position to finish. She can grab an arm or a neck from anywhere: from the guard, in a transition, in a scramble. Her ability to create submission situations out of nowhere is what makes her so special and feared.
Right Hand Knockout Power: Over the years, Mackenzie has developed frightening knockout power, especially with her overhand right. She's not the most technical striker; her punches are somewhat wild and wide, but when they connect, they cause immense damage. This right hand has become a weapon that forces opponents to respect her striking, which, in turn, opens up opportunities for her to seek the clinch or ground fight.
Heart and Resilience:Mackenzie has been in real battles inside the octagon and has shown that she has a strong chin and a lot of heart. She never backs down and is always seeking victory, even when the going gets tough.
Weaknesses
Defense in Exchanging and Takedowns: Because she's so aggressive on the feet, she exposes herself to counterattacks. Her takedown defense isn't impenetrable either. While she's comfortable fighting from the bottom, being pinned to the ground by a controller like Virna can be a problem.
Consistency and Strategy: At times, Mackenzie seems to fall in love with striking and stray from her main game plan, which is to take the fight to the ground. In a five-round fight, energy management and adherence to a smart strategy are crucial, and this has been a problem for her in the past.
The Direct Confrontation and the Verdict
This fight will be decided by who can impose their grappling style.
Standing: Mackenzie has the advantage. Even though she's not technically adept, her finishing power is far greater. Virna will need to be extremely careful to close the distance without taking one of Mackenzie's powerful overhands.
On the floor: Here's the "trick." If Virna gets the takedown and stabilizes on top, she has the strength and control to neutralize Mackenzie's game, score, and perhaps find a submission late in the fight, when Mackenzie's gas is at its lowest. On the other hand, if the fight goes to the ground in a scramble, in a quick transition, the advantage is entirely Mackenzie's. She's a master at capitalizing on chaos and finding a split-second submission.
The Forecast
This is one of the most difficult fights to predict on the recent UFC schedule. The margins are slim. However, taking a sober look at the paths to victory, Virna jandiroba appears to be more consistent and repeatable over 25 minutes.
I believe Virna's strategy will be clear: survive the first few minutes of danger on the feet, use the clinch on the fence to tire Mackenzie, land takedowns, and work from the top with her suffocating pressure game. She'll seek to win round after round with positional control, avoiding Mackenzie's dangerous attacks. If Mackenzie can't secure a submission in the early rounds or land a clean strike that changes the course of the fight, the odds will shift to Virna as the clock ticks down.
Winner: Virna jandiroba by Unanimous Decision
I predict a tense fight, where Virna will be able to impose her control game for the most part, frustrating Mackenzie's submission attempts and securing the rounds to become the new UFC strawweight champion. My prediction is based on the probability of consistent strategy of Virna to overcome the moments of danger offered by Mackenzie over 25 minutes. It's a bet on tactical discipline versus explosive genius.
A big 'but': Mackenzie has the power to end the fight at any second. A single mistake from Virna, whether it's leaving her neck exposed for a moment or letting her guard down in the exchanges, could be enough for Mackenzie to take home the belt.
What is the probability that the prediction is correct?
If I had to translate my analysis into a sort of “confidence probability,” I would say I have about 60% to 65% confidence in the victory of Virna jandirobaMy confidence in Virna comes from the consistency and sustainability of her game plan for a five-round fight. But, as in every great fight, genius may very well prevail.
You need login To comment.